2.2 The logical structure
The physical structure of the hard disk can be quite imposing, but with IDE the modern computer does not have to worry about this. Instead, the modern hard disk can be thought of as a completely separate computer whose sole purpose is to answer read and write requests sent by the disk interface on the mother board.
In the past, the physical and logical structure of the disk were one-in-the-same. A disk was physically divided into cylinders and sectors, with a head for each surface containing data. This led to the logical C/H/S description of the disk to the disk controller, where C is the number of cylinders (AKA tracks), H is the number of heads, and S is the number of sectors per cylinder. A sector always held 512 bytes of data. This was also the original way for the BIOS to "number" the sectors, which resulted in the two subsequent size barriers of 528MB (maximum size of 1024/16/63), and 8.4GB (maximum size of 1024/256/63). The correlation of physical cylinders, sectors, and heads to logical C/H/S no longer exists in modern hard disks, and is a holdover from ancient times. Modern hard disks refer to the sectors (which still contain 512 bytes) by number, a method frequently called LBA. Software can still request a sector using the old C/H/S description, but this is converted into the LBA sector number by the BIOS or OS before the request is sent to the drive. There are two size limitations for LBA, 137GB (from 28-bit address), and 144GGB (that's giga-giga bytes, from 48-bit address). There was also a proposed 64-bit address, but who needs 18GGGB of storage.
How long will the 48-bit address last? The 20-bit address was exceeded in 1995, and the 28-bit address was recently exceeded in 2003, which indicates a bit (or a doubling) every year, so we might expect the 48-bit address to last another 20 years. However, there are two limiting factors to disk size, consumer demand and technological capability. Program space once accounted for 50% of the hard disk usage, but now its only accounts for about 5%. Almost all of the 8-bit increase has been due to the amount of data people want to store.
On the consumer side, most of this size increase has been due to digital movies, music, and pictures, but these are reaching a plateu. In the area of digital music, compression techniques are already optimal, sample rates are dictated by anatomy, and song lengths have been consistent for hundreds of years. Movies might increase their size 4 times in order to accomodate the new High Definition standard, which isn't likely to be improved upon for many decades (or ever) due to human limitations. Pictures are going to max-out at about 10MB per image (compressed) due to optimal compression techniques, limitations of the human eye, and technological hardships in making bigger ones. If we figure that movies have driven disk size, then we would only expect consumer needs to increase by a factor of 4 (or 2 bits). Of course, pak-rat-itis might add another 2 or 3 bits bringing the consumer demand to a maximum size of 4.4TB (33-bit address).
On the research side, disk requirements increase as computing power enables larger and more accurate models. Currently, research based demands are roughly equal to consumer demands at the 137GB per disk level. The relationship between storage and processing power depends on the type of research, but for the most processor and storage intensive research, storage space is proportional to the cube root of processing power. If processing power continues to double every 1.5 years, then storage requirements will double every 4.5 years. This means research needs will add a bit every 4.5 years. In roughly 23 years research and consumer needs will be equal again at 4.4TB per disk.
From a technological standpoint, my collegues have just sought funding to do research which might bring magnetic storage to its highest possible data densities. Assuming we continue to use 3in platters in our hard drives, this maximum will deliver a disk which will offer 5TB per platter per side. Generally, 3 platters tend to max-out a disk drive, so 30TB disks (requiring a 34-bit address) might be possible in the next couple of decades. Of course, it might be infeasable to use such large platters with such high data densities, but that's a problem for the future. Regardless, it appears unlikely that the 48-bit barrier will pose any problem.